TFS - Flat Rank School Record Rating Schedule -------------------------------------------------------------------------- . 1) Florida State (12 - 0 - 0) 63.927 53.927 . 2) Michigan (10 - 2 - 0) 61.137 54.470 . 3) Michigan State (10 - 2 - 0) 60.640 53.974 . 4) Nebraska (12 - 1 - 0) 60.466 52.004 . 5) Alabama (10 - 3 - 0) 60.203 54.818 . 6) Virginia Tech (11 - 1 - 0) 60.075 51.893 . 7) Penn State (10 - 3 - 0) 58.982 53.598 . 8) Tennessee ( 9 - 3 - 0) 58.352 53.352 . 9) Wisconsin (10 - 2 - 0) 58.109 51.745 . 10) Kansas State (11 - 1 - 0) 57.888 49.554 . 11) Florida ( 9 - 4 - 0) 57.651 53.804 . 12) Mississippi State (10 - 2 - 0) 57.421 50.754 . 13) Marshall (13 - 0 - 0) 56.670 46.670 . 14) Miami (Florida) ( 9 - 4 - 0) 56.601 53.268 . 15) Illinois ( 8 - 4 - 0) 56.091 52.757 . 16) Georgia Tech ( 8 - 4 - 0) 55.885 52.552 . 17) Southern Mississippi ( 9 - 3 - 0) 55.478 50.933 . 18) Oregon ( 9 - 3 - 0) 55.410 50.410 . 19) Purdue ( 7 - 5 - 0) 55.082 53.415 . 20) Minnesota ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.966 52.239 . 21) Georgia ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.965 51.632 . 22) Virginia ( 7 - 5 - 0) 54.690 53.023 . 23) Texas ( 9 - 5 - 0) 54.617 51.759 . 24) East Carolina ( 9 - 3 - 0) 54.576 49.576 . 25) Texas A&M ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.386 51.052 . 26) Mississippi ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.366 51.033 . 27) Ohio State ( 6 - 6 - 0) 54.221 54.221 . 28) Arkansas ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.211 50.878 . 29) Clemson ( 6 - 6 - 0) 53.997 53.997 . 30) Stanford ( 8 - 4 - 0) 53.872 50.539 . 31) Brigham Young ( 8 - 4 - 0) 53.709 50.376 . 32) Utah ( 9 - 3 - 0) 53.593 48.593 . 33) Louisiana Tech ( 8 - 3 - 0) 53.560 49.560 . 34) Wake Forest ( 7 - 5 - 0) 53.225 51.559 . 35) Washington ( 7 - 5 - 0) 53.144 51.477 . 36) Colorado State ( 8 - 4 - 0) 52.851 49.518 . 37) Boston College ( 8 - 4 - 0) 52.552 49.825 . 38) Colorado ( 7 - 5 - 0) 52.257 50.590 . 39) North Carolina State ( 6 - 6 - 0) 52.249 53.158 . 40) Wyoming ( 7 - 4 - 0) 51.911 49.911 . 41) Syracuse ( 7 - 5 - 0) 51.902 50.235 . 42) Auburn ( 5 - 6 - 0) 51.828 53.828 . 43) Kentucky ( 6 - 6 - 0) 51.776 52.685 . 44) Houston ( 7 - 4 - 0) 51.676 48.949 . 45) Boise State (10 - 3 - 0) 51.616 47.071 . 46) Notre Dame ( 5 - 7 - 0) 51.525 53.191 . 47) Oklahoma ( 7 - 5 - 0) 51.421 50.512 . 48) Vanderbilt ( 5 - 6 - 0) 51.349 53.349 . 49) Louisville ( 7 - 5 - 0) 51.314 50.405 . 50) Oregon State ( 7 - 5 - 0) 50.900 49.991 . 51) Southern California ( 6 - 6 - 0) 50.697 50.697 . 52) Maryland ( 5 - 6 - 0) 50.668 52.668 . 53) Arizona State ( 6 - 6 - 0) 50.637 50.637 . 54) Arizona ( 6 - 6 - 0) 50.371 50.371 . 55) Hawaii ( 9 - 4 - 0) 50.273 46.427 . 56) Alabama-Birmingham ( 5 - 6 - 0) 50.067 50.976 . 57) Texas Christian ( 8 - 4 - 0) 50.058 46.725 . 58) Indiana ( 4 - 7 - 0) 49.790 52.517 . 59) Memphis ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.706 50.615 . 60) Oklahoma State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.596 50.505 . 61) North Carolina ( 3 - 8 - 0) 49.512 53.512 . 62) Pittsburgh ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.462 50.371 . 63) Air Force ( 6 - 5 - 0) 49.431 49.431 . 64) Fresno State ( 8 - 5 - 0) 49.425 47.759 . 65) Texas Tech ( 6 - 5 - 0) 49.210 48.300 . 66) Northwestern ( 3 - 8 - 0) 49.043 53.589 . 67) Duke ( 3 - 8 - 0) 49.011 53.556 . 68) UCLA ( 4 - 7 - 0) 49.008 51.735 . 69) Missouri ( 4 - 7 - 0) 48.993 51.720 . 70) California ( 4 - 7 - 0) 48.794 51.521 . 71) Miami (Ohio) ( 7 - 4 - 0) 48.712 45.985 . 72) San Diego State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 48.570 50.570 . 73) Western Michigan ( 7 - 5 - 0) 48.326 47.417 . 74) West Virginia ( 4 - 7 - 0) 48.221 50.948 . 75) Akron ( 7 - 4 - 0) 48.144 45.416 . 76) Rice ( 5 - 6 - 0) 48.052 48.961 . 77) Kansas ( 5 - 7 - 0) 47.973 50.701 . 78) Louisiana State ( 3 - 8 - 0) 47.954 52.500 . 79) Idaho ( 7 - 4 - 0) 47.849 46.738 . 80) Cincinnati ( 3 - 8 - 0) 47.452 51.452 . 81) Iowa State ( 4 - 7 - 0) 47.225 51.225 . 82) New Mexico State ( 6 - 5 - 0) 46.938 46.938 . 83) Texas-El Paso ( 5 - 7 - 0) 46.864 48.531 . 84) Ohio ( 5 - 6 - 0) 46.712 46.712 . 85) Navy ( 5 - 7 - 0) 46.471 48.138 . 86) Toledo ( 6 - 5 - 0) 46.436 46.436 . 87) Temple ( 2 - 9 - 0) 45.966 52.330 . 88) New Mexico ( 4 - 7 - 0) 45.903 49.903 . 89) Iowa ( 1 - 10 - 0) 45.878 54.059 . 90) Washington State ( 3 - 9 - 0) 45.448 50.448 . 91) Utah State ( 4 - 7 - 0) 45.405 49.405 . 92) Louisiana-Monroe ( 5 - 6 - 0) 45.307 48.641 . 93) Central Florida ( 4 - 7 - 0) 45.307 49.307 . 94) Northern Illinois ( 5 - 6 - 0) 45.122 45.122 . 95) Tulane ( 3 - 8 - 0) 44.850 49.396 . 96) Southern Methodist ( 4 - 6 - 0) 44.655 47.988 . 97) South Carolina ( 0 - 11 - 0) 44.628 54.628 . 98) Army ( 3 - 8 - 0) 44.616 49.162 . 99) Eastern Michigan ( 4 - 7 - 0) 44.557 47.284 . 100) Bowling Green State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 44.152 46.152 . 101) Arkansas State ( 4 - 7 - 0) 43.857 47.857 . 102) Nevada-Las Vegas ( 3 - 8 - 0) 43.544 48.089 . 103) Nevada ( 3 - 8 - 0) 43.453 47.998 . 104) Rutgers ( 1 - 10 - 0) 43.444 51.626 . 105) San Jose State ( 3 - 7 - 0) 43.216 48.771 . 106) Central Michigan ( 4 - 7 - 0) 42.299 45.026 . 107) Baylor ( 1 - 10 - 0) 42.148 50.330 . 108) Kent ( 2 - 9 - 0) 40.660 47.024 . 109) North Texas ( 2 - 9 - 0) 40.185 46.548 . 110) Tulsa ( 2 - 9 - 0) 40.183 48.183 . 111) Louisiana-Lafayette ( 2 - 9 - 0) 39.841 47.841 . 112) Middle Tennessee State ( 3 - 8 - 0) 39.431 49.431 . 113) Buffalo ( 0 - 11 - 0) 37.926 47.926 . 114) Ball State ( 0 - 11 - 0) 37.115 47.115 . 115) Eastern Illinois ( 0 - 3 - 0) 35.960 45.960 Largest Deviations: ------------------ 10/16/1999 Boise State 10 North Texas 17 Upset! 09/18/1999 Wisconsin 12 Cincinnati 17 Upset! 10/02/1999 San Jose State 44 Stanford 39 Upset! 09/18/1999 North Texas 21 Texas Tech 14 Upset! 11/13/1999 Syracuse 21 Rutgers 24 Upset! 10/09/1999 Nevada-Las Vegas 35 Wyoming 32 Upset! 10/07/1999 Louisville 52 Army 59 Upset! 11/06/1999 Tulsa 43 Texas-El Paso 19 Upset! 09/18/1999 Louisiana Tech 29 Alabama 28 @ Birmingham AL Upset! 10/09/1999 Boston College 14 Temple 24 Upset! Average Game Outcome Measure = 10.0000 Standard deviation of fit = 7.5227 18.55 % of the games are upsets. 118 out of 636 games are upsets. 197 games fall within 0.5 standard deviations ( 30.97 %) 407 games fall within 1.0 standard deviations ( 63.99 %) 559 games fall within 1.5 standard deviations ( 87.89 %) 618 games fall within 2.0 standard deviations ( 97.17 %) 632 games fall within 2.5 standard deviations ( 99.37 %) 636 games fall within 3.0 standard deviations (100.00 %) 636 games fall within 3.5 standard deviations (100.00 %) 636 games fall within 4.0 standard deviations (100.00 %) These ratings are based on 636 College Football games played. Games involving teams with too few games are included in the records but excluded from the fit.