TFS - Flat Rank School Record Rating Schedule -------------------------------------------------------------------------- . 1) Penn State (11 - 1 - 0) 63.752 55.418 . 2) Georgia (11 - 1 - 0) 62.455 54.122 . 3) UCLA (10 - 1 - 1) 61.694 54.194 . 4) Nebraska (12 - 1 - 0) 60.714 52.253 . 5) Washington (10 - 2 - 0) 60.272 53.605 . 6) Arizona State (10 - 2 - 0) 60.088 53.421 . 7) Southern California ( 8 - 3 - 0) 59.827 55.281 . 8) Clemson ( 9 - 1 - 1) 59.623 52.623 . 9) Southern Methodist (11 - 0 - 1) 59.181 50.015 . 10) Auburn ( 9 - 3 - 0) 59.128 54.128 . 11) Fresno State (11 - 1 - 0) 58.567 48.567 . 12) Pittsburgh ( 9 - 3 - 0) 58.448 53.448 . 13) Florida State ( 9 - 3 - 0) 58.355 53.355 . 14) Florida ( 8 - 4 - 0) 58.066 54.732 . 15) West Virginia ( 9 - 3 - 0) 57.624 52.624 . 16) Arkansas ( 9 - 2 - 1) 57.565 51.732 . 17) Alabama ( 8 - 4 - 0) 57.439 54.106 . 18) New Mexico (10 - 1 - 0) 57.202 49.020 . 19) California ( 7 - 4 - 0) 57.120 54.393 . 20) Maryland ( 8 - 4 - 0) 56.894 53.561 . 21) Texas ( 9 - 3 - 0) 56.695 51.695 . 22) Louisiana State ( 8 - 3 - 1) 56.453 52.286 . 23) Oklahoma ( 8 - 4 - 0) 56.378 53.045 . 24) Arizona ( 6 - 4 - 1) 56.285 54.467 . 25) Notre Dame ( 6 - 4 - 1) 56.179 54.361 . 26) Ohio State ( 9 - 3 - 0) 56.039 51.039 . 27) Boston College ( 8 - 3 - 1) 56.001 53.001 . 28) Boise State ( 3 - 0 - 0) 55.957 45.957 . 29) Michigan ( 8 - 4 - 0) 55.790 52.457 . 30) North Carolina ( 8 - 4 - 0) 55.712 52.379 . 31) Miami (Florida) ( 7 - 4 - 0) 55.573 52.846 . 32) Vanderbilt ( 8 - 4 - 0) 55.565 52.838 . 33) Brigham Young ( 8 - 4 - 0) 55.275 51.942 . 34) Tulsa (10 - 1 - 0) 55.167 46.985 . 35) Iowa ( 8 - 4 - 0) 54.434 51.101 . 36) San Jose State ( 8 - 3 - 0) 54.419 50.419 . 37) Stanford ( 5 - 6 - 0) 54.371 55.280 . 38) San Diego State ( 7 - 5 - 0) 54.251 52.585 . 39) Air Force ( 8 - 5 - 0) 54.092 51.784 . 40) Southern Mississippi ( 7 - 4 - 0) 53.744 51.016 . 41) North Carolina State ( 6 - 5 - 0) 53.586 53.586 . 42) Mississippi State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 53.222 54.131 . 43) Duke ( 6 - 5 - 0) 53.065 52.155 . 44) Tennessee ( 6 - 5 - 1) 53.034 52.200 . 45) Illinois ( 7 - 5 - 0) 52.990 51.323 . 46) Georgia Tech ( 6 - 5 - 0) 52.622 52.622 . 47) Wisconsin ( 7 - 5 - 0) 52.505 50.838 . 48) Eastern Illinois ( 3 - 0 - 0) 52.002 42.002 . 49) Hawaii ( 6 - 5 - 0) 51.781 51.781 . 50) Long Beach State ( 6 - 5 - 0) 51.768 50.859 . 51) Houston ( 5 - 5 - 1) 51.759 52.759 . 52) Kansas State ( 6 - 5 - 1) 51.665 51.665 . 53) Missouri ( 5 - 4 - 2) 51.653 50.744 . 54) Mississippi ( 4 - 7 - 0) 50.905 53.633 . 55) Oregon ( 2 - 8 - 1) 50.873 56.327 . 56) South Carolina ( 4 - 7 - 0) 50.799 52.799 . 57) Navy ( 6 - 5 - 0) 50.521 50.521 . 58) Texas Tech ( 4 - 7 - 0) 50.438 53.165 . 59) Indiana ( 5 - 6 - 0) 50.234 51.143 . 60) Oklahoma State ( 4 - 5 - 2) 50.129 51.039 . 61) Cincinnati ( 6 - 5 - 0) 50.058 51.169 . 62) Texas A&M ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.930 50.839 . 63) Rutgers ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.864 50.773 . 64) Utah ( 5 - 6 - 0) 49.598 51.598 . 65) Tulane ( 4 - 7 - 0) 49.597 52.324 . 66) Virginia Tech ( 7 - 4 - 0) 49.418 47.418 . 67) Baylor ( 4 - 6 - 1) 49.237 51.055 . 68) Wyoming ( 5 - 7 - 0) 48.979 50.646 . 69) East Carolina ( 7 - 4 - 0) 48.942 46.942 . 70) Wichita State ( 8 - 3 - 0) 48.704 44.704 . 71) Temple ( 4 - 7 - 0) 48.535 52.535 . 72) Washington State ( 3 - 7 - 1) 48.342 53.342 . 73) Louisville ( 5 - 6 - 0) 48.149 50.149 . 74) Louisiana Tech ( 3 - 2 - 0) 48.114 46.114 . 75) Utah State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 48.005 51.339 . 76) Colorado State ( 4 - 7 - 0) 47.977 50.704 . 77) Iowa State ( 4 - 6 - 1) 47.948 49.766 . 78) Arkansas State ( 2 - 3 - 0) 47.797 49.797 . 79) Louisiana-Lafayette ( 7 - 3 - 1) 47.673 44.673 . 80) Colorado ( 2 - 8 - 1) 47.384 52.838 . 81) Syracuse ( 2 - 9 - 0) 47.281 53.644 . 82) Purdue ( 3 - 8 - 0) 47.188 51.733 . 83) Nevada-Las Vegas ( 3 - 8 - 0) 46.821 51.366 . 84) Oregon State ( 1 - 9 - 1) 46.805 55.805 . 85) Bowling Green State ( 7 - 5 - 0) 46.786 45.120 . 86) Texas Christian ( 3 - 8 - 0) 46.600 51.145 . 87) Kansas ( 2 - 7 - 2) 46.596 51.142 . 88) Southern Illinois ( 6 - 5 - 0) 46.365 46.365 . 89) Pacific ( 2 - 9 - 0) 46.249 51.804 . 90) Kentucky ( 0 - 10 - 1) 46.216 55.307 . 91) Wake Forest ( 3 - 8 - 0) 46.155 53.933 . 92) Texas-El Paso ( 2 - 10 - 0) 46.104 52.771 . 93) Michigan State ( 2 - 9 - 0) 45.621 51.985 . 94) Miami (Ohio) ( 7 - 4 - 0) 45.620 42.892 . 95) Minnesota ( 3 - 8 - 0) 45.583 50.128 . 96) Western Michigan ( 7 - 2 - 2) 45.411 41.411 . 97) Virginia ( 2 - 9 - 0) 45.347 51.347 . 98) Northwestern ( 3 - 8 - 0) 45.318 49.864 . 99) Colgate ( 1 - 2 - 0) 45.226 48.560 . 100) Indiana State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 44.736 45.645 . 101) Central Michigan ( 6 - 4 - 1) 44.655 42.836 . 102) Louisiana-Monroe ( 1 - 2 - 0) 44.312 47.645 . 103) Memphis ( 1 - 10 - 0) 44.286 52.468 . 104) Army ( 4 - 7 - 0) 43.756 53.756 . 105) Fullerton State ( 3 - 9 - 0) 43.616 51.394 . 106) Toledo ( 6 - 5 - 0) 43.502 42.593 . 107) Ohio ( 6 - 5 - 0) 42.949 42.040 . 108) West Texas A&M ( 3 - 8 - 0) 42.832 46.832 . 109) Northern Illinois ( 5 - 5 - 0) 42.500 42.500 . 110) Drake ( 4 - 7 - 0) 42.315 44.815 . 111) Rice ( 0 - 11 - 0) 42.284 52.284 . 112) New Mexico State ( 3 - 8 - 0) 41.986 47.986 . 113) North Texas ( 2 - 9 - 0) 41.518 47.882 . 114) Texas-Arlington ( 1 - 4 - 0) 41.353 47.353 . 115) Ball State ( 5 - 6 - 0) 41.242 42.151 . 116) William & Mary ( 3 - 8 - 0) 41.124 45.410 . 117) McNeese State ( 0 - 2 - 1) 38.414 45.080 . 118) Western Illinois ( 1 - 2 - 0) 37.862 41.195 . 119) Richmond ( 0 - 9 - 1) 37.627 46.627 . 120) Marshall ( 1 - 2 - 0) 37.345 40.679 . 121) Eastern Michigan ( 1 - 9 - 1) 36.390 43.390 . 122) Virginia Military Institu ( 0 - 3 - 1) 35.879 43.379 . 123) Illinois State ( 2 - 9 - 0) 34.906 44.906 . 124) Kent ( 0 - 11 - 0) 33.123 43.123 Largest Deviations: ------------------ 11/20/1982 Washington 20 Washington State 24 Upset! 11/06/1982 Arkansas 17 Baylor 24 Upset! 10/30/1982 Brigham Young 17 Utah State 20 Upset! 11/06/1982 Iowa 7 Purdue 16 Upset! 11/27/1982 Tulane 31 Louisiana State 28 Upset! 09/18/1982 Iowa State 19 Iowa 7 Upset! 10/16/1982 Louisiana-Lafayette 29 Texas-Arlington 30 Upset! 10/09/1982 Penn State 21 Alabama 42 @ Birmingham AL Upset! 10/16/1982 Colorado State 21 Air Force 11 Upset! 10/30/1982 Washington 31 Stanford 43 Upset! Average Game Outcome Measure = 9.7468 Standard deviation of fit = 6.8610 14.08 % of the games are upsets. 89 out of 632 games are upsets. 223 games fall within 0.5 standard deviations ( 35.28 %) 406 games fall within 1.0 standard deviations ( 64.24 %) 549 games fall within 1.5 standard deviations ( 86.87 %) 615 games fall within 2.0 standard deviations ( 97.31 %) 628 games fall within 2.5 standard deviations ( 99.37 %) 631 games fall within 3.0 standard deviations ( 99.84 %) 632 games fall within 3.5 standard deviations (100.00 %) 632 games fall within 4.0 standard deviations (100.00 %) These ratings are based on 632 College Football games played. Games involving teams with too few games are included in the records but excluded from the fit.