NCAA Division I TFS 2.2 Rank School Record Conf. Div. Rating Schedule --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . 1) Southern Cal (13 - 0) Pac-10 DI-A 122.740 100.047 . 2) Oklahoma (12 - 1) Big12 DI-A 119.266 99.151 . 3) Utah (12 - 0) MWC DI-A 115.824 92.324 . 4) Texas (11 - 1) Big12 DI-A 115.535 98.244 . 5) Auburn (13 - 0) SEC DI-A 115.454 92.877 . 6) California (10 - 2) Pac-10 DI-A 114.427 97.677 . 7) Miami FL ( 9 - 3) ACC DI-A 110.719 98.052 . 8) Arizona St ( 9 - 3) Pac-10 DI-A 110.647 101.147 . 9) Louisville (11 - 1) CUSA DI-A 109.658 88.908 . 10) Iowa (10 - 2) BigTen DI-A 108.971 95.637 . 11) Georgia (10 - 2) SEC DI-A 108.643 95.184 . 12) Boise St (11 - 1) WAC DI-A 107.950 89.575 . 13) Texas A&M ( 7 - 5) Big12 DI-A 107.663 102.829 . 14) Virginia Tech (10 - 3) ACC DI-A 107.191 93.653 . 15) Florida St ( 9 - 3) ACC DI-A 106.962 95.087 . 16) Texas Tech ( 8 - 4) Big12 DI-A 106.818 99.109 . 17) Tennessee (10 - 3) SEC DI-A 106.436 96.243 . 18) LSU ( 9 - 3) SEC DI-A 106.111 94.861 . 19) Oregon St ( 7 - 5) Pac-10 DI-A 105.184 101.143 . 20) Michigan ( 9 - 3) BigTen DI-A 105.166 94.791 . 21) Virginia ( 8 - 4) ACC DI-A 103.825 94.658 . 22) Wisconsin ( 9 - 3) BigTen DI-A 102.926 90.968 . 23) Oklahoma St ( 7 - 5) Big12 DI-A 102.703 98.786 . 24) Ohio State ( 8 - 4) BigTen DI-A 102.648 94.773 . 25) Colorado ( 8 - 5) Big12 DI-A 101.011 98.434 . 26) Boston College ( 9 - 3) BigEast DI-A 100.286 87.911 . 27) Notre Dame ( 6 - 6) DI-A-Ind DI-A 100.078 99.536 . 28) Purdue ( 7 - 5) BigTen DI-A 100.038 93.997 . 29) Fresno St ( 9 - 3) WAC DI-A 99.563 87.604 . 30) North Carolina ( 6 - 6) ACC DI-A 98.969 100.219 . 31) UCLA ( 6 - 6) Pac-10 DI-A 98.957 96.999 . 32) New Mexico ( 7 - 5) MWC DI-A 98.857 95.440 . 33) Florida ( 7 - 5) SEC DI-A 98.800 93.300 . 34) Navy (10 - 2) DI-A-Ind DI-A 97.992 84.992 . 35) Georgia Tech ( 7 - 5) ACC DI-A 97.987 94.445 . 36) West Virginia ( 8 - 4) BigEast DI-A 97.249 89.374 . 37) Clemson ( 6 - 5) ACC DI-A 97.058 95.467 . 38) UTEP ( 8 - 4) WAC DI-A 96.633 88.050 . 39) Iowa St ( 7 - 5) Big12 DI-A 96.612 93.904 . 40) Pittsburgh ( 8 - 4) BigEast DI-A 96.576 90.409 . 41) Brigham Young ( 5 - 6) MWC DI-A 96.509 98.464 . 42) Arkansas ( 5 - 6) SEC DI-A 96.426 96.971 . 43) South Carolina ( 6 - 5) SEC DI-A 95.708 92.345 . 44) Minnesota ( 7 - 5) BigTen DI-A 94.884 89.968 . 45) Oregon ( 5 - 6) Pac-10 DI-A 94.758 96.485 . 46) Wyoming ( 7 - 5) MWC DI-A 94.499 92.332 . 47) Washington St ( 5 - 6) Pac-10 DI-A 94.487 97.260 . 48) Stanford ( 4 - 7) Pac-10 DI-A 94.170 98.943 . 49) Northwestern ( 6 - 6) BigTen DI-A 93.713 94.504 . 50) North Carolina St ( 5 - 6) ACC DI-A 93.687 94.869 . 51) Kansas ( 4 - 7) Big12 DI-A 93.318 97.818 . 52) James Madison (13 - 2) A10 DI-AA 93.102 77.069 . 53) Louisiana Tech ( 6 - 6) WAC DI-A 92.583 93.625 . 54) Nebraska ( 5 - 6) Big12 DI-A 92.360 93.997 . 55) Southern Miss ( 7 - 5) CUSA DI-A 92.330 89.539 . 56) Alabama ( 6 - 6) SEC DI-A 92.262 90.970 . 57) Cincinnati ( 7 - 5) CUSA DI-A 92.241 89.033 . 58) Air Force ( 5 - 6) MWC DI-A 92.042 94.087 . 59) Memphis ( 8 - 4) CUSA DI-A 91.880 84.921 . 60) Connecticut ( 8 - 4) BigEast DI-A 91.799 84.799 . 61) Syracuse ( 6 - 6) BigEast DI-A 91.734 92.359 . 62) Alabama-Birmingham ( 7 - 5) CUSA DI-A 91.547 87.839 . 63) Hawai`i ( 8 - 5) WAC DI-A 91.518 87.749 . 64) Kansas St ( 4 - 7) Big12 DI-A 91.381 96.745 . 65) Missouri ( 5 - 6) Big12 DI-A 90.674 91.992 . 66) Bowling Green ( 9 - 3) MAC DI-A 90.471 78.179 . 67) Maryland ( 5 - 6) ACC DI-A 90.272 94.226 . 68) Colorado St ( 4 - 7) MWC DI-A 90.207 96.161 . 69) Arizona ( 3 - 8) Pac-10 DI-A 89.688 100.460 . 70) New Hampshire (10 - 3) A10 DI-AA 89.584 77.814 . 71) Michigan St ( 5 - 7) BigTen DI-A 89.534 91.825 . 72) Troy St ( 7 - 5) SunBelt DI-A 89.418 84.793 . 73) Delaware ( 9 - 4) A10 DI-AA 89.336 81.413 . 74) Northern Illinois ( 9 - 3) MAC DI-A 89.318 78.526 . 75) William & Mary (11 - 3) A10 DI-AA 89.309 78.023 . 76) Harvard (10 - 0) Ivy DI-AA 89.233 66.033 . 77) North Texas ( 7 - 5) SunBelt DI-A 88.804 85.804 . 78) Toledo ( 9 - 4) MAC DI-A 88.128 80.166 . 79) TCU ( 5 - 6) CUSA DI-A 88.052 89.871 . 80) Mississippi ( 4 - 7) SEC DI-A 87.745 94.018 . 81) Montana (12 - 3) BigSky DI-AA 87.648 74.981 . 82) San Diego St ( 4 - 7) MWC DI-A 87.265 92.220 . 83) Baylor ( 3 - 8) Big12 DI-A 86.810 98.310 . 84) Wake Forest ( 4 - 7) ACC DI-A 86.513 91.922 . 85) Penn St ( 4 - 7) BigTen DI-A 85.387 92.023 . 86) Miami OH ( 8 - 5) MAC DI-A 85.360 78.513 . 87) New Mexico St ( 5 - 6) SunBelt DI-A 84.982 88.119 . 88) Cal Poly SLO ( 9 - 2) GrWest DI-AA 84.839 69.612 . 89) Florida Atlantic ( 9 - 3) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 84.631 73.756 . 90) Furman (10 - 3) Southern DI-AA 84.140 69.910 . 91) Eastern Washington ( 9 - 4) BigSky DI-AA 84.069 74.607 . 92) Southern Illinois (10 - 2) Gateway DI-AA 83.627 65.752 . 93) Houston ( 3 - 8) CUSA DI-A 83.395 92.486 . 94) Rutgers ( 4 - 7) BigEast DI-A 83.285 89.512 . 95) Sam Houston St (11 - 3) Southland DI-AA 83.100 70.529 . 96) Georgia Southern ( 9 - 3) Southern DI-AA 82.826 69.534 . 97) Tulane ( 5 - 6) CUSA DI-A 82.390 85.890 . 98) Marshall ( 6 - 6) MAC DI-A 82.238 81.363 . 99) South Florida ( 4 - 7) CUSA DI-A 81.707 88.343 . 100) Middle Tenn St ( 5 - 6) SunBelt DI-A 81.602 82.557 . 101) Villanova ( 6 - 5) A10 DI-AA 81.373 79.010 . 102) Mississippi St ( 3 - 8) SEC DI-A 80.942 91.533 . 103) Pennsylvania ( 8 - 2) Ivy DI-AA 80.796 67.646 . 104) Indiana ( 3 - 8) BigTen DI-A 80.669 90.078 . 105) Duke ( 2 - 9) ACC DI-A 80.668 94.759 . 106) UL-Monroe ( 5 - 6) SunBelt DI-A 80.500 84.500 . 107) Tulsa ( 4 - 8) WAC DI-A 80.497 88.288 . 108) Western Kentucky ( 9 - 3) Gateway DI-AA 80.376 68.626 . 109) Rice ( 3 - 8) WAC DI-A 80.266 89.676 . 110) Massachusetts ( 6 - 5) A10 DI-AA 80.086 78.950 . 111) Washington ( 1 - 10) Pac-10 DI-A 79.803 98.621 . 112) UNLV ( 2 - 9) MWC DI-A 79.472 94.518 . 113) Nevada ( 5 - 7) WAC DI-A 78.994 82.786 . 114) Vanderbilt ( 2 - 9) SEC DI-A 78.942 91.851 . 115) SMU ( 3 - 8) WAC DI-A 78.940 91.349 . 116) Maine ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 78.825 79.325 . 117) Illinois ( 3 - 8) BigTen DI-A 78.797 90.388 . 118) North Dakota St ( 8 - 3) GrWest DI-AA 78.755 66.437 . 119) Akron ( 6 - 5) MAC DI-A 78.740 78.377 . 120) Portland St ( 7 - 4) BigSky DI-AA 78.577 70.714 . 121) Kentucky ( 2 - 9) SEC DI-A 78.357 94.357 . 122) Northeastern ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 77.711 77.347 . 123) Northern Iowa ( 7 - 4) Gateway DI-AA 77.277 70.322 . 124) UL-Lafayette ( 4 - 7) SunBelt DI-A 76.531 81.667 . 125) Utah St ( 3 - 8) SunBelt DI-A 76.137 87.228 . 126) Temple ( 2 - 9) BigEast DI-A 76.034 90.125 . 127) Army ( 2 - 9) CUSA DI-A 75.838 89.657 . 128) Hofstra ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 75.698 75.289 . 129) Lehigh ( 9 - 3) Patriot DI-AA 75.692 64.442 . 130) Arkansas St ( 3 - 8) SunBelt DI-A 75.540 85.768 . 131) East Carolina ( 2 - 9) CUSA DI-A 75.399 89.717 . 132) Jacksonville St ( 9 - 2) OVC DI-AA 75.033 60.852 . 133) Kent St ( 5 - 6) MAC DI-A 74.900 75.264 . 134) Montana St ( 6 - 5) BigSky DI-AA 74.671 73.308 . 135) Idaho ( 3 - 9) SunBelt DI-A 74.041 85.500 . 136) Lafayette ( 8 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 73.715 65.465 . 137) Northwestern St ( 8 - 4) Southland DI-AA 73.650 66.400 . 138) UC-Davis ( 6 - 4) GrWest DI-AA 73.489 68.039 . 139) Appalachian St ( 6 - 5) Southern DI-AA 72.946 70.855 . 140) Hampton (10 - 2) MEAC DI-AA 72.777 57.527 . 141) Wofford ( 8 - 3) Southern DI-AA 71.759 62.213 . 142) Bucknell ( 7 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 71.642 64.961 . 143) Colgate ( 7 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 71.086 65.086 . 144) San José St ( 2 - 9) WAC DI-A 70.781 85.690 . 145) Stephen F. Austin ( 6 - 5) Southland DI-AA 70.563 69.109 . 146) South Dakota St ( 6 - 5) GrWest DI-AA 70.437 68.164 . 147) Ohio U. ( 4 - 7) MAC DI-A 70.414 76.459 . 148) Southern Utah ( 6 - 5) GrWest DI-AA 70.318 67.590 . 149) Richmond ( 3 - 8) A10 DI-AA 69.838 78.520 . 150) Brown ( 6 - 4) Ivy DI-AA 69.495 65.595 . 151) Texas St-San Marcos ( 5 - 6) Southland DI-AA 69.428 71.701 . 152) South Carolina St ( 9 - 2) MEAC DI-AA 69.010 55.056 . 153) Princeton ( 5 - 5) Ivy DI-AA 68.776 68.026 . 154) Eastern Michigan ( 4 - 7) MAC DI-A 68.748 75.839 . 155) Rhode Island ( 4 - 7) A10 DI-AA 67.916 75.189 . 156) SW Missouri St ( 6 - 5) Gateway DI-AA 67.783 67.601 . 157) Murray St ( 7 - 4) OVC DI-AA 67.772 61.181 . 158) Central Michigan ( 4 - 7) MAC DI-A 67.577 75.304 . 159) Ball St ( 2 - 9) MAC DI-A 67.225 81.407 . 160) Nicholls St ( 5 - 5) Southland DI-AA 67.095 67.095 . 161) Yale ( 5 - 5) Ivy DI-AA 66.690 68.190 . 162) Alabama St (10 - 2) SWAC DI-AA 66.512 51.637 . 163) Eastern Kentucky ( 6 - 5) OVC DI-AA 66.345 64.482 . 164) Florida Int'l ( 3 - 7) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 65.838 74.338 . 165) Northern Arizona ( 4 - 7) BigSky DI-AA 65.312 71.312 . 166) Cornell ( 4 - 6) Ivy DI-AA 65.085 68.785 . 167) Towson ( 3 - 8) A10 DI-AA 64.181 75.181 . 168) Idaho St ( 3 - 8) BigSky DI-AA 63.894 73.985 . 169) Illinois St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 63.854 70.581 . 170) The Citadel ( 3 - 7) Southern DI-AA 63.776 72.526 . 171) SE Louisiana ( 7 - 4) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 62.954 55.863 . 172) McNeese St ( 4 - 7) Southland DI-AA 62.730 69.367 . 173) Sacramento St ( 3 - 8) BigSky DI-AA 62.561 74.515 . 174) Tennessee Tech ( 6 - 5) OVC DI-AA 62.545 60.863 . 175) Youngstown St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 62.486 67.123 . 176) Bethune-Cookman ( 6 - 4) MEAC DI-AA 62.423 56.123 . 177) Buffalo ( 2 - 9) MAC DI-A 62.032 77.305 . 178) Fordham ( 5 - 6) Patriot DI-AA 61.797 62.206 . 179) Western Michigan ( 1 - 10) MAC DI-A 61.650 78.923 . 180) Western Carolina ( 4 - 7) Southern DI-AA 61.115 66.843 . 181) Coastal Carolina (10 - 1) Big South DI-AA 61.094 43.094 . 182) Northern Colorado ( 2 - 9) GrWest DI-AA 60.717 76.263 . 183) Liberty ( 6 - 5) Big South DI-AA 60.693 59.512 . 184) Indiana St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 60.581 68.263 . 185) Eastern Illinois ( 5 - 6) OVC DI-AA 60.089 61.498 . 186) Gardner-Webb ( 5 - 6) Big South DI-AA 59.958 61.913 . 187) Central Florida ( 0 - 11) MAC DI-A 59.844 81.435 . 188) Western Illinois ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 59.168 66.350 . 189) Drake (10 - 2) Pioneer DI-AA 59.155 43.488 . 190) Southern U. ( 8 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 59.024 51.733 . 191) Central Conn St ( 8 - 2) NEC DI-AA 59.018 46.068 . 192) Samford ( 4 - 7) OVC DI-AA 58.780 64.916 . 193) Howard ( 6 - 5) MEAC DI-AA 58.349 55.849 . 194) San Diego ( 7 - 4) Pioneer DI-AA 58.209 51.300 . 195) Monmouth NJ (10 - 1) NEC DI-AA 58.004 41.185 . 196) Weber St ( 1 - 10) BigSky DI-AA 57.857 75.993 . 197) Florida A&M ( 3 - 8) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 57.755 68.937 . 198) Chattanooga ( 2 - 9) Southern DI-AA 56.631 71.086 . 199) Alcorn St ( 7 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 56.539 50.857 . 200) Alabama A&M ( 7 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 56.089 48.998 . 201) Dayton ( 7 - 3) Pioneer DI-AA 55.782 43.882 . 202) SE Missouri St ( 3 - 8) OVC DI-AA 55.671 66.308 . 203) Elon ( 3 - 8) Southern DI-AA 55.233 65.733 . 204) Delaware St ( 4 - 7) MEAC DI-AA 55.066 62.339 . 205) Morgan St ( 5 - 6) MEAC DI-AA 54.253 56.026 . 206) Tennessee St ( 4 - 7) OVC DI-AA 54.043 59.997 . 207) Arkansas-Pine Bluff ( 6 - 3) SWAC DI-AA 53.466 45.021 . 208) Dartmouth ( 1 - 9) Ivy DI-AA 53.391 70.541 . 209) Duquesne ( 7 - 3) MAAC DI-AA 53.385 43.685 . 210) Columbia ( 1 - 9) Ivy DI-AA 52.562 70.062 . 211) Holy Cross ( 3 - 8) Patriot DI-AA 52.105 62.878 . 212) Grambling St ( 6 - 5) SWAC DI-AA 50.912 50.231 . 213) Jackson St ( 4 - 7) SWAC DI-AA 50.324 56.234 . 214) North Carolina A&T ( 3 - 8) MEAC DI-AA 49.928 60.928 . 215) Albany NY ( 4 - 7) NEC DI-AA 49.702 56.293 . 216) Robert Morris ( 6 - 5) NEC DI-AA 48.018 45.564 . 217) Georgetown DC ( 3 - 8) Patriot DI-AA 46.968 56.968 . 218) Sacred Heart ( 6 - 4) NEC DI-AA 46.946 42.946 . 219) Wagner ( 6 - 5) NEC DI-AA 45.861 43.997 . 220) Charleston Southern ( 5 - 5) Big South DI-AA 45.302 45.702 . 221) Stony Brook ( 3 - 7) NEC DI-AA 44.433 51.783 . 222) VMI ( 0 - 11) Big South DI-AA 44.408 66.453 . 223) Tennessee-Martin ( 2 - 9) OVC DI-AA 43.102 58.739 . 224) Savannah St ( 2 - 8) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 42.820 56.020 . 225) Morehead St ( 6 - 6) Pioneer DI-AA 41.949 41.991 . 226) Norfolk St ( 1 - 8) MEAC DI-AA 39.712 57.879 . 227) Valparaiso ( 5 - 6) Pioneer DI-AA 39.287 41.150 . 228) Mississippi Valley St ( 3 - 8) SWAC DI-AA 39.229 48.684 . 229) Marist ( 3 - 6) MAAC DI-AA 36.540 45.429 . 230) Prairie View A&M ( 3 - 8) SWAC DI-AA 36.328 45.556 . 231) Jacksonville FL ( 3 - 7) Pioneer DI-AA 34.781 46.331 . 232) St Francis PA ( 3 - 8) NEC DI-AA 34.263 45.854 . 233) Davidson ( 2 - 7) Pioneer DI-AA 30.555 44.166 . 234) Texas Southern ( 0 - 11) SWAC DI-AA 29.782 55.736 . 235) St Peter's ( 3 - 7) MAAC DI-AA 28.996 37.546 . 236) Butler ( 1 - 10) Pioneer DI-AA 25.712 45.166 . 237) Iona ( 2 - 8) MAAC DI-AA 24.630 37.880 . 238) La Salle ( 3 - 7) MAAC DI-AA 24.203 32.603 . 239) Austin Peay ( 2 - 9) Pioneer DI-AA 23.616 38.434 Average game outcome measure (gom): 21.9881 Standard deviation of the fit: 15.9003 540 of the 3772 games were upsets. ( 14.316%) The largest deviations were: ---------------------------- 25-Sep-04 Stony Brook 27 Monmouth NJ 0 <== upset! 9-Oct-04 Coe 7 Dubuque 12 <== upset! 18-Sep-04 St Augustine's 34 Shaw 6 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Tufts 10 Amherst 3 <== upset! 4-Sep-04 Missouri Valley 23 MidAmerica Nazarene 13 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Illinois College 10 Knox 13 <== upset! 13-Nov-04 Brown 7 Dartmouth 20 <== upset! 9-Oct-04 Loras 31 Wartburg 14 <== upset! 9-Oct-04 Nichols 20 UMass-Dartmouth 10 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 Navy 10 Tulane 42 <== upset! 1389 games fall within 0.5 standard deviations. ( 36.824%) 2688 games fall within 1.0 standard deviations. ( 71.262%) 3438 games fall within 1.5 standard deviations. ( 91.145%) 3706 games fall within 2.0 standard deviations. ( 98.250%) 3764 games fall within 2.5 standard deviations. ( 99.788%) 3772 games fall within 3.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 3.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 5.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) These ratings are based on 3772 games played between 707 teams. Conference Divison Rating Sched. N ------------------------------------------------ Pac-10 DI-A 100.486 98.878 10 Big12 DI-A 100.346 97.443 12 DI-A-Ind DI-A 99.035 92.264 2 ACC DI-A 97.623 95.214 11 SEC DI-A 95.485 93.709 12 BigTen DI-A 94.794 92.632 11 MWC DI-A 94.334 94.443 8 BigEast DI-A 90.995 89.213 7 WAC DI-A 87.772 88.439 10 CUSA DI-A 87.676 88.746 11 SunBelt DI-A 80.839 85.104 9 A10 DI-AA 79.747 77.761 12 MAC DI-A 74.760 78.361 14 GrWest DI-AA 73.092 69.351 6 BigSky DI-AA 71.824 73.677 8 Southland DI-AA 71.094 69.034 6 Gateway DI-AA 69.394 68.077 8 Southern DI-AA 68.553 68.588 8 Ivy DI-AA 68.254 68.110 8 Patriot DI-AA 64.715 63.144 7 DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 62.800 65.783 5 OVC DI-AA 60.376 62.093 9 MEAC DI-AA 57.690 57.716 8 Big South DI-AA 54.291 55.335 5 SWAC DI-AA 49.821 50.469 10 NEC DI-AA 48.281 46.711 8 Pioneer DI-AA 41.005 43.990 9 MAAC DI-AA 33.551 39.429 5 ------------------------------------ Largest deviations: ------------------- 25-Sep-04 Stony Brook 27 Monmouth NJ 0 <== upset! 13-Nov-04 Brown 7 Dartmouth 20 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 Navy 10 Tulane 42 <== upset! 26-Nov-04 Arizona St 27 Arizona 34 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Eastern Illinois 14 Tennessee-Martin 32 <== upset! 2-Sep-04 Eastern Washington 14 Nicholls St 37 <== upset! 9-Oct-04 Cincinnati 29 Army 48 <== upset! 8-Oct-04 UNLV 24 Brigham Young 20 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Florida 31 Mississippi St 38 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Texas A&M 34 Baylor 35 <== upset! There were 221 upsets out of 1397 games ( 15.820%) involving teams from NCAA DI.