NCAA Division I-AA Flat Rank School Record Conf. Div. Rating Schedule --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . 1) James Madison (13 - 2) A10 DI-AA 68.782 61.448 . 2) William & Mary (11 - 3) A10 DI-AA 67.652 61.938 . 3) Delaware ( 9 - 4) A10 DI-AA 67.179 63.333 . 4) New Hampshire (10 - 3) A10 DI-AA 66.945 61.560 . 5) Montana (12 - 3) BigSky DI-AA 66.496 60.496 . 6) Harvard (10 - 0) Ivy DI-AA 65.957 55.957 . 7) Florida Atlantic ( 9 - 3) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 65.625 60.625 . 8) Sam Houston St (11 - 3) Southland DI-AA 64.621 58.907 . 9) Cal Poly SLO ( 9 - 2) GrWest DI-AA 64.579 58.216 . 10) Eastern Washington ( 9 - 4) BigSky DI-AA 64.218 60.372 . 11) Furman (10 - 3) Southern DI-AA 63.791 58.407 . 12) Southern Illinois (10 - 2) Gateway DI-AA 63.443 56.776 . 13) Georgia Southern ( 9 - 3) Southern DI-AA 63.200 58.200 . 14) Villanova ( 6 - 5) A10 DI-AA 63.102 62.193 . 15) Western Kentucky ( 9 - 3) Gateway DI-AA 62.999 57.999 . 16) Massachusetts ( 6 - 5) A10 DI-AA 62.911 62.002 . 17) Pennsylvania ( 8 - 2) Ivy DI-AA 62.697 56.697 . 18) Northern Iowa ( 7 - 4) Gateway DI-AA 61.458 58.731 . 19) Portland St ( 7 - 4) BigSky DI-AA 61.447 58.720 . 20) North Dakota St ( 8 - 3) GrWest DI-AA 61.423 56.878 . 21) Maine ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 61.415 62.324 . 22) Jacksonville St ( 9 - 2) OVC DI-AA 60.887 54.524 . 23) Northeastern ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 60.800 61.709 . 24) Lehigh ( 9 - 3) Patriot DI-AA 60.644 55.644 . 25) Montana St ( 6 - 5) BigSky DI-AA 60.631 59.722 . 26) Northwestern St ( 8 - 4) Southland DI-AA 60.467 57.134 . 27) Hampton (10 - 2) MEAC DI-AA 60.186 53.519 . 28) Appalachian St ( 6 - 5) Southern DI-AA 59.709 58.800 . 29) Hofstra ( 5 - 6) A10 DI-AA 59.628 60.537 . 30) Wofford ( 8 - 3) Southern DI-AA 59.503 54.958 . 31) UC-Davis ( 6 - 4) GrWest DI-AA 59.489 57.489 . 32) Lafayette ( 8 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 59.222 55.889 . 33) Stephen F. Austin ( 6 - 5) Southland DI-AA 59.005 58.096 . 34) South Carolina St ( 9 - 2) MEAC DI-AA 58.849 52.486 . 35) Texas St-San Marcos ( 5 - 6) Southland DI-AA 58.462 59.371 . 36) SW Missouri St ( 6 - 5) Gateway DI-AA 58.442 57.533 . 37) Colgate ( 7 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 58.371 55.644 . 38) South Dakota St ( 6 - 5) GrWest DI-AA 58.344 57.434 . 39) Southern Utah ( 6 - 5) GrWest DI-AA 58.337 57.428 . 40) Bucknell ( 7 - 4) Patriot DI-AA 58.330 55.603 . 41) Brown ( 6 - 4) Ivy DI-AA 57.847 55.847 . 42) Alabama St (10 - 2) SWAC DI-AA 57.731 51.064 . 43) Rhode Island ( 4 - 7) A10 DI-AA 57.664 60.392 . 44) Murray St ( 7 - 4) OVC DI-AA 57.620 54.892 . 45) Nicholls St ( 5 - 5) Southland DI-AA 57.436 57.436 . 46) Richmond ( 3 - 8) A10 DI-AA 57.366 61.911 . 47) Eastern Kentucky ( 6 - 5) OVC DI-AA 57.053 56.144 . 48) Princeton ( 5 - 5) Ivy DI-AA 56.893 56.893 . 49) Yale ( 5 - 5) Ivy DI-AA 56.865 56.865 . 50) Florida Int'l ( 3 - 7) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 56.528 60.528 . 51) Northern Arizona ( 4 - 7) BigSky DI-AA 56.159 58.886 . 52) Illinois St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 56.125 58.853 . 53) Towson ( 3 - 8) A10 DI-AA 56.064 60.610 . 54) Sacramento St ( 3 - 8) BigSky DI-AA 55.670 60.215 . 55) The Citadel ( 3 - 7) Southern DI-AA 55.545 59.545 . 56) McNeese St ( 4 - 7) Southland DI-AA 55.517 58.244 . 57) Tennessee Tech ( 6 - 5) OVC DI-AA 55.503 54.594 . 58) Idaho St ( 3 - 8) BigSky DI-AA 55.492 60.038 . 59) SE Louisiana ( 7 - 4) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 55.423 52.696 . 60) Cornell ( 4 - 6) Ivy DI-AA 55.278 57.278 . 61) Coastal Carolina (10 - 1) Big South DI-AA 55.221 47.039 . 62) Bethune-Cookman ( 6 - 4) MEAC DI-AA 55.023 53.023 . 63) Indiana St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 54.984 57.711 . 64) Liberty ( 6 - 5) Big South DI-AA 54.844 53.935 . 65) Northern Colorado ( 2 - 9) GrWest DI-AA 54.659 61.022 . 66) Youngstown St ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 54.594 57.321 . 67) Southern U. ( 8 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 54.361 51.027 . 68) Western Illinois ( 4 - 7) Gateway DI-AA 54.315 57.042 . 69) Western Carolina ( 4 - 7) Southern DI-AA 54.307 57.034 . 70) Central Conn St ( 8 - 2) NEC DI-AA 54.272 48.272 . 71) Gardner-Webb ( 5 - 6) Big South DI-AA 54.205 55.114 . 72) Monmouth NJ (10 - 1) NEC DI-AA 54.174 45.992 . 73) Eastern Illinois ( 5 - 6) OVC DI-AA 54.113 55.022 . 74) Drake (10 - 2) Pioneer DI-AA 53.843 47.176 . 75) Howard ( 6 - 5) MEAC DI-AA 53.793 52.884 . 76) Fordham ( 5 - 6) Patriot DI-AA 53.673 54.582 . 77) Samford ( 4 - 7) OVC DI-AA 53.660 56.387 . 78) Florida A&M ( 3 - 8) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 53.597 58.143 . 79) Alcorn St ( 7 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 53.441 50.713 . 80) San Diego ( 7 - 4) Pioneer DI-AA 52.938 50.211 . 81) Delaware St ( 4 - 7) MEAC DI-AA 52.719 55.447 . 82) Weber St ( 1 - 10) BigSky DI-AA 52.692 60.874 . 83) Alabama A&M ( 7 - 4) SWAC DI-AA 52.667 49.940 . 84) Chattanooga ( 2 - 9) Southern DI-AA 52.510 58.873 . 85) SE Missouri St ( 3 - 8) OVC DI-AA 52.358 56.903 . 86) Morgan St ( 5 - 6) MEAC DI-AA 52.082 52.991 . 87) Elon ( 3 - 8) Southern DI-AA 52.053 56.599 . 88) Tennessee St ( 4 - 7) OVC DI-AA 51.670 54.397 . 89) Arkansas-Pine Bluff ( 6 - 3) SWAC DI-AA 51.507 48.174 . 90) Grambling St ( 6 - 5) SWAC DI-AA 51.280 50.371 . 91) Dayton ( 7 - 3) Pioneer DI-AA 51.201 47.201 . 92) Duquesne ( 7 - 3) MAAC DI-AA 50.767 46.767 . 93) North Carolina A&T ( 3 - 8) MEAC DI-AA 50.393 54.939 . 94) Jackson St ( 4 - 7) SWAC DI-AA 50.230 52.957 . 95) Holy Cross ( 3 - 8) Patriot DI-AA 50.212 54.757 . 96) Dartmouth ( 1 - 9) Ivy DI-AA 50.075 58.075 . 97) Columbia ( 1 - 9) Ivy DI-AA 49.684 57.684 . 98) Albany NY ( 4 - 7) NEC DI-AA 49.679 52.406 . 99) Sacred Heart ( 6 - 4) NEC DI-AA 48.914 46.914 . 100) Robert Morris ( 6 - 5) NEC DI-AA 48.876 47.967 . 101) Charleston Southern ( 5 - 5) Big South DI-AA 48.328 48.328 . 102) Wagner ( 6 - 5) NEC DI-AA 48.236 47.326 . 103) Georgetown DC ( 3 - 8) Patriot DI-AA 47.980 52.525 . 104) Tennessee-Martin ( 2 - 9) OVC DI-AA 47.330 53.693 . 105) Savannah St ( 2 - 8) DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 47.152 53.152 . 106) VMI ( 0 - 11) Big South DI-AA 47.064 57.064 . 107) Stony Brook ( 3 - 7) NEC DI-AA 46.668 50.668 . 108) Morehead St ( 6 - 6) Pioneer DI-AA 46.476 46.476 . 109) Norfolk St ( 1 - 8) MEAC DI-AA 45.819 53.597 . 110) Mississippi Valley St ( 3 - 8) SWAC DI-AA 45.273 49.818 . 111) Valparaiso ( 5 - 6) Pioneer DI-AA 45.232 46.141 . 112) Jacksonville FL ( 3 - 7) Pioneer DI-AA 44.610 48.610 . 113) Marist ( 3 - 6) MAAC DI-AA 44.375 47.708 . 114) Prairie View A&M ( 3 - 8) SWAC DI-AA 43.950 48.496 . 115) St Francis PA ( 3 - 8) NEC DI-AA 43.540 48.085 . 116) Texas Southern ( 0 - 11) SWAC DI-AA 42.745 52.745 . 117) Davidson ( 2 - 7) Pioneer DI-AA 41.782 47.338 . 118) St Peter's ( 3 - 7) MAAC DI-AA 40.595 44.595 . 119) Butler ( 1 - 10) Pioneer DI-AA 39.544 47.726 . 120) Austin Peay ( 2 - 9) Pioneer DI-AA 38.759 45.123 . 121) Iona ( 2 - 8) MAAC DI-AA 38.721 44.721 . 122) La Salle ( 3 - 7) MAAC DI-AA 38.433 42.433 Average game outcome measure (gom): 10.0000 Standard deviation of the fit: 7.6119 546 of the 3772 games were upsets. ( 14.475%) The largest deviations were: ---------------------------- 9-Oct-04 Coe 7 Dubuque 12 <== upset! 26-Nov-04 Arizona St 27 Arizona 34 <== upset! 16-Oct-04 Shenandoah 19 Greensboro 24 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Illinois College 10 Knox 13 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Tufts 10 Amherst 3 <== upset! 18-Sep-04 St Augustine's 34 Shaw 6 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Texas A&M 34 Baylor 35 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 Bethany KS 28 Tabor 27 <== upset! 13-Nov-04 Brown 7 Dartmouth 20 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Concordia-St Paul 25 Wayne St NE 28 <== upset! 1375 games fall within 0.5 standard deviations. ( 36.453%) 2651 games fall within 1.0 standard deviations. ( 70.281%) 3455 games fall within 1.5 standard deviations. ( 91.596%) 3709 games fall within 2.0 standard deviations. ( 98.330%) 3768 games fall within 2.5 standard deviations. ( 99.894%) 3772 games fall within 3.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 3.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 5.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) These ratings are based on 3772 games played between 707 teams. Conference Divison Rating Sched. N ------------------------------------------------ A10 DI-AA 62.459 61.663 12 GrWest DI-AA 59.472 58.078 6 Southland DI-AA 59.251 58.198 6 BigSky DI-AA 59.101 59.915 8 Gateway DI-AA 58.295 57.746 8 Southern DI-AA 57.577 57.802 8 Ivy DI-AA 56.912 56.912 8 DI-AA-Ind DI-AA 55.665 57.029 5 Patriot DI-AA 55.490 54.949 7 OVC DI-AA 54.466 55.173 9 MEAC DI-AA 53.608 53.611 8 Big South DI-AA 51.932 52.296 5 SWAC DI-AA 50.319 50.531 10 NEC DI-AA 49.295 48.454 8 Pioneer DI-AA 46.043 47.334 9 MAAC DI-AA 42.578 45.245 5 ------------------------------------ Largest deviations: ------------------- 13-Nov-04 Brown 7 Dartmouth 20 <== upset! 25-Sep-04 Stony Brook 27 Monmouth NJ 0 <== upset! 2-Oct-04 Hampton 23 Delaware St 28 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Appalachian St 56 Chattanooga 59 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Eastern Illinois 14 Tennessee-Martin 32 <== upset! 2-Sep-04 Eastern Washington 14 Nicholls St 37 <== upset! 4-Sep-04 North Dakota St 13 Northern Colorado 15 <== upset! 11-Sep-04 Sam Houston St 31 SW Missouri St 33 <== upset! 18-Sep-04 Richmond 24 Massachusetts 14 <== upset! 13-Nov-04 Appalachian St 27 Western Carolina 30 <== upset! There were 109 upsets out of 746 games ( 14.611%) involving teams from NCAA DI-AA.