NCAA Division II Flat Rank School Record Conf. Div. Rating Schedule --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . 1) Valdosta St (13 - 1) GNAC DII 65.293 56.721 . 2) Pittsburg St (14 - 1) MAIAA DII 64.135 55.469 . 3) Albany St GA (11 - 1) SIAC DII 62.611 54.278 . 4) Shippensburg (10 - 2) PennSt DII 62.028 55.361 . 5) North Dakota (11 - 3) Ncentral DII 61.887 56.173 . 6) NW Missouri St (11 - 2) MAIAA DII 61.427 54.504 . 7) West Chester (11 - 4) PennSt DII 60.972 56.306 . 8) East Stroudsburg (10 - 2) PennSt DII 60.470 53.803 . 9) Colorado Mines (12 - 1) RMAC DII 60.406 51.945 . 10) Arkansas Tech (10 - 2) GNAC DII 60.390 53.723 . 11) Carson-Newman ( 9 - 3) SoAtlC DII 59.794 54.794 . 12) Michigan Tech ( 9 - 2) GLIAC DII 59.789 53.426 . 13) Northwood (10 - 2) GLIAC DII 59.607 52.940 . 14) Indiana PA ( 7 - 3) PennSt DII 59.585 55.585 . 15) Grand Valley St (10 - 3) GLIAC DII 59.493 54.108 . 16) Tuskegee (10 - 2) SIAC DII 59.159 52.492 . 17) Central Arkansas ( 8 - 3) GNAC DII 58.774 54.228 . 18) Delta St ( 6 - 4) GNAC DII 58.468 56.468 . 19) St Cloud St ( 8 - 3) Ncentral DII 58.448 53.902 . 20) Bloomsburg ( 7 - 3) PennSt DII 58.440 54.440 . 21) Edinboro ( 9 - 3) PennSt DII 58.398 53.398 . 22) Nebraska-Omaha ( 8 - 3) Ncentral DII 58.395 53.849 . 23) Central Washington ( 7 - 4) GNAC DII 58.051 55.324 . 24) South Dakota ( 9 - 2) Ncentral DII 57.498 51.134 . 25) Shaw (10 - 2) CIAA DII 57.240 50.573 . 26) Catawba ( 7 - 4) SoAtlC DII 57.167 54.440 . 27) Washburn ( 8 - 4) MAIAA DII 57.057 53.724 . 28) Saginaw Valley St ( 7 - 3) GLIAC DII 57.032 53.032 . 29) TAMU-Kingsville ( 9 - 2) LoneStar DII 56.728 50.364 . 30) Winona St (10 - 2) NSIC DII 56.690 50.023 . 31) Harding ( 6 - 5) GNAC DII 56.132 55.223 . 32) Central Missouri ( 7 - 4) MAIAA DII 55.836 53.109 . 33) Wingate ( 8 - 3) SoAtlC DII 55.568 51.022 . 34) Western Washington ( 6 - 4) GNAC DII 55.514 53.514 . 35) Ferris St ( 6 - 5) GLIAC DII 55.369 54.460 . 36) North Carolina Central ( 8 - 2) CIAA DII 55.360 49.360 . 37) Minn St-Mankato ( 6 - 5) Ncentral DII 55.275 54.366 . 38) Tusculum ( 6 - 4) SoAtlC DII 55.223 53.223 . 39) North Alabama ( 5 - 5) GNAC DII 55.182 55.182 . 40) Kentucky St ( 7 - 4) SIAC DII 55.013 52.286 . 41) Midwestern St ( 8 - 3) LoneStar DII 54.934 50.388 . 42) Chadron St ( 7 - 3) RMAC DII 54.918 50.918 . 43) Miles ( 7 - 3) SIAC DII 54.832 50.832 . 44) Arkansas-Monticello ( 6 - 5) GNAC DII 54.792 53.883 . 45) Fayetteville St ( 8 - 4) CIAA DII 54.753 51.419 . 46) Millersville ( 5 - 5) PennSt DII 54.568 54.568 . 47) Adams St ( 7 - 4) RMAC DII 54.523 51.795 . 48) Presbyterian ( 6 - 5) SoAtlC DII 54.420 53.510 . 49) SE Oklahoma St ( 8 - 3) LoneStar DII 54.297 49.751 . 50) Fort Valley St ( 7 - 4) SIAC DII 54.173 51.446 . 51) Emporia St ( 5 - 6) MAIAA DII 54.155 55.064 . 52) Bemidji St ( 8 - 3) NSIC DII 54.137 49.591 . 53) Central Oklahoma ( 8 - 2) LoneStar DII 53.987 47.987 . 54) California PA ( 6 - 4) PennSt DII 53.888 51.888 . 55) Humboldt St ( 5 - 5) GNAC DII 53.648 53.648 . 56) Mars Hill ( 6 - 4) SoAtlC DII 53.473 51.473 . 57) Missouri Southern ( 5 - 6) MAIAA DII 53.245 54.154 . 58) Fort Hays St ( 6 - 5) RMAC DII 53.008 52.099 . 59) Missouri Western ( 5 - 6) MAIAA DII 52.895 53.805 . 60) Tarleton St ( 7 - 4) LoneStar DII 52.791 50.063 . 61) Kutztown ( 4 - 6) PennSt DII 52.743 54.743 . 62) Southern Arkansas ( 5 - 6) GNAC DII 52.721 53.630 . 63) Concordia-St Paul ( 7 - 4) NSIC DII 52.400 49.672 . 64) Ouachita Baptist ( 2 - 7) GNAC DII 52.284 57.839 . 65) Virginia St ( 6 - 4) CIAA DII 52.174 50.174 . 66) Findlay ( 6 - 5) GLIAC DII 52.162 51.253 . 67) Slippery Rock ( 4 - 7) PennSt DII 51.877 54.605 . 68) Shepherd ( 7 - 3) WVIAC DII 51.801 47.801 . 69) East Central ( 6 - 4) LoneStar DII 51.801 49.801 . 70) Northern St ( 6 - 5) NSIC DII 51.577 50.668 . 71) Newberry ( 5 - 6) SoAtlC DII 51.345 52.254 . 72) Minn-Duluth ( 4 - 7) Ncentral DII 50.997 53.724 . 73) Ashland ( 5 - 6) GLIAC DII 50.784 51.694 . 74) Eastern New Mexico ( 6 - 5) LoneStar DII 50.701 49.792 . 75) Lock Haven ( 3 - 8) PennSt DII 50.691 55.236 . 76) Mercyhurst ( 4 - 7) GLIAC DII 50.656 53.383 . 77) Henderson St ( 2 - 8) GNAC DII 50.580 56.580 . 78) West Georgia ( 2 - 7) GNAC DII 50.472 56.028 . 79) Clarion ( 3 - 8) PennSt DII 50.398 54.943 . 80) Nebraska-Kearney ( 5 - 6) RMAC DII 50.308 51.217 . 81) Morehouse ( 4 - 6) SIAC DII 50.117 52.117 . 82) Missouri-Rolla ( 3 - 8) MAIAA DII 50.054 54.600 . 83) Abilene Christian ( 5 - 5) LoneStar DII 50.027 50.027 . 84) C.W. Post ( 8 - 3) NE-10 DII 49.972 45.426 . 85) Bowie St ( 5 - 5) CIAA DII 49.886 49.886 . 86) Indianapolis ( 4 - 7) GLIAC DII 49.871 52.599 . 87) Hillsdale ( 4 - 7) GLIAC DII 49.788 52.515 . 88) Bentley ( 8 - 2) NE-10 DII 49.692 43.692 . 89) Augustana SD ( 3 - 8) Ncentral DII 49.681 54.227 . 90) Gannon ( 4 - 7) GLIAC DII 49.403 52.130 . 91) West Alabama ( 2 - 9) GNAC DII 49.364 55.727 . 92) Lenoir-Rhyne ( 3 - 8) SoAtlC DII 49.312 53.857 . 93) Truman St ( 2 - 9) MAIAA DII 49.179 55.543 . 94) Winston-Salem St ( 4 - 6) CIAA DII 49.077 51.077 . 95) Benedict ( 3 - 8) SIAC DII 49.000 53.545 . 96) Southern Conn St ( 8 - 2) NE-10 DII 48.939 42.939 . 97) Fort Lewis ( 4 - 6) RMAC DII 48.918 50.918 . 98) St Augustine's ( 4 - 6) CIAA DII 48.913 50.913 . 99) Panhandle St ( 6 - 5) Alliance DII 48.844 47.935 . 100) Western Oregon ( 1 - 9) GNAC DII 48.730 56.730 . 101) St Joseph's ( 7 - 4) Alliance DII 48.517 45.790 . 102) Western St ( 3 - 8) RMAC DII 48.181 52.726 . 103) WV Wesleyan ( 6 - 5) WVIAC DII 48.177 47.268 . 104) Glenville St ( 5 - 6) WVIAC DII 48.108 49.017 . 105) Northern Michigan ( 2 - 8) GLIAC DII 47.989 53.989 . 106) SW Baptist ( 2 - 9) MAIAA DII 47.977 54.340 . 107) Stillman ( 5 - 5) DII-Ind DII 47.782 47.782 . 108) Tiffin ( 5 - 6) Alliance DII 47.697 48.606 . 109) Merrimack ( 8 - 2) NE-10 DII 47.573 41.573 . 110) Elizabeth City St ( 3 - 7) CIAA DII 47.402 51.402 . 111) TAMU-Commerce ( 4 - 6) LoneStar DII 46.976 48.976 . 112) Concord ( 5 - 6) WVIAC DII 46.889 47.798 . 113) New Mexico Highlands ( 3 - 8) RMAC DII 46.327 50.872 . 114) Fairmont St ( 5 - 5) WVIAC DII 46.260 46.260 . 115) SW Minnesota St ( 5 - 6) NSIC DII 46.223 47.132 . 116) Lane ( 2 - 9) SIAC DII 45.846 52.209 . 117) Cheyney ( 1 - 10) PennSt DII 45.843 54.025 . 118) Mansfield ( 1 - 9) PennSt DII 45.619 53.619 . 119) Wayne St MI ( 1 - 9) GLIAC DII 45.592 53.592 . 120) Minn-Crookston ( 2 - 8) NSIC DII 45.450 51.450 . 121) Clark Atlanta ( 1 - 9) SIAC DII 45.069 53.069 . 122) Livingstone ( 2 - 8) CIAA DII 44.977 50.977 . 123) Wayne St NE ( 3 - 8) NSIC DII 44.765 49.311 . 124) West Texas A&M ( 2 - 8) LoneStar DII 44.408 50.408 . 125) Virginia Union ( 2 - 8) CIAA DII 44.387 50.387 . 126) Upper Iowa ( 2 - 8) DII-Ind DII 44.286 50.286 . 127) Angelo St ( 2 - 9) LoneStar DII 44.133 50.496 . 128) American Int'l ( 5 - 4) NE-10 DII 43.822 42.711 . 129) Western New Mexico ( 2 - 8) Alliance DII 43.628 49.628 . 130) Johnson C. Smith ( 0 - 10) CIAA DII 43.303 53.303 . 131) Mesa St ( 0 - 11) RMAC DII 42.372 52.372 . 132) North Greenville ( 3 - 7) Alliance DII 42.259 46.259 . 133) Minn St-Moorhead ( 0 - 11) NSIC DII 42.188 52.188 . 134) SW Oklahoma St ( 1 - 9) LoneStar DII 42.005 50.005 . 135) Bryant ( 4 - 5) NE-10 DII 41.822 42.933 . 136) West Virginia St ( 3 - 8) WVIAC DII 41.772 46.318 . 137) Northeastern St OK ( 0 - 10) LoneStar DII 41.313 51.313 . 138) West Virginia Tech ( 2 - 9) WVIAC DII 41.238 47.602 . 139) St Anselm ( 4 - 6) NE-10 DII 39.871 41.871 . 140) Lincoln MO ( 1 - 9) Alliance DII 39.551 47.551 . 141) West Liberty St ( 2 - 8) WVIAC DII 39.488 45.488 . 142) Charleston WV ( 3 - 7) WVIAC DII 39.367 43.367 . 143) Stonehill ( 2 - 7) NE-10 DII 37.822 43.377 . 144) Assumption ( 1 - 9) NE-10 DII 35.176 43.176 . 145) Pace ( 0 - 10) NE-10 DII 33.529 43.529 Average game outcome measure (gom): 10.0000 Standard deviation of the fit: 7.6119 546 of the 3772 games were upsets. ( 14.475%) The largest deviations were: ---------------------------- 9-Oct-04 Coe 7 Dubuque 12 <== upset! 26-Nov-04 Arizona St 27 Arizona 34 <== upset! 16-Oct-04 Shenandoah 19 Greensboro 24 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Illinois College 10 Knox 13 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Tufts 10 Amherst 3 <== upset! 18-Sep-04 St Augustine's 34 Shaw 6 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Texas A&M 34 Baylor 35 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 Bethany KS 28 Tabor 27 <== upset! 13-Nov-04 Brown 7 Dartmouth 20 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Concordia-St Paul 25 Wayne St NE 28 <== upset! 1375 games fall within 0.5 standard deviations. ( 36.453%) 2651 games fall within 1.0 standard deviations. ( 70.281%) 3455 games fall within 1.5 standard deviations. ( 91.596%) 3709 games fall within 2.0 standard deviations. ( 98.330%) 3768 games fall within 2.5 standard deviations. ( 99.894%) 3772 games fall within 3.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 3.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 4.5 standard deviations. (100.000%) 3772 games fall within 5.0 standard deviations. (100.000%) These ratings are based on 3772 games played between 707 teams. Conference Divison Rating Sched. N ------------------------------------------------ Ncentral DII 56.026 53.911 7 GNAC DII 55.025 55.278 16 PennSt DII 54.680 54.466 14 MAIAA DII 54.596 54.431 10 SoAtlC DII 54.538 53.072 8 GLIAC DII 52.887 53.009 13 SIAC DII 52.869 52.475 9 RMAC DII 50.996 51.651 9 CIAA DII 49.770 50.861 11 LoneStar DII 49.546 49.952 13 NSIC DII 49.179 50.004 8 DII-Ind DII 46.034 49.034 2 Alliance DII 45.083 47.628 6 WVIAC DII 44.789 46.769 9 NE-10 DII 42.822 43.123 10 ------------------------------------ Largest deviations: ------------------- 18-Sep-04 St Augustine's 34 Shaw 6 <== upset! 23-Oct-04 Concordia-St Paul 25 Wayne St NE 28 <== upset! 26-Sep-04 Stillman 17 Miles 14 <== upset! 2-Oct-04 Western Washington 49 Western Oregon 52 <== upset! 30-Oct-04 Abilene Christian 17 TAMU-Kingsville 10 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 WV Wesleyan 23 West Virginia St 31 <== upset! 9-Oct-04 Saginaw Valley St 15 Mercyhurst 22 <== upset! 2-Oct-04 Wingate 26 Lenoir-Rhyne 31 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 Pikeville 21 North Greenville 28 <== upset! 6-Nov-04 North Alabama 27 West Alabama 28 <== upset! There were 106 upsets out of 847 games ( 12.515%) involving teams from NCAA DII.