The Fleming System

College Athletics Rating System

The Fleming System (TFS) began in 1994 as the Fleming College Football Computer Rating System (FCFCR). This season marks its 18th year on the WWW.
Jump to:
Football:
[Version 2.1] [Flat Ratings] [Straight Ratings] [Win + Offense] [Win + Defense]
Baseball:
[Version 4.5]
Basketball:
[Version 4.6]

Football Playoff and Championship Information
Subdivision Championship Game Champion
NCAA Division I - Bowl Subdivision none
NCAA Division I - Championship Subdivision January 7, 2012 North Dakota State
NCAA Division II December 17, 2011 Pittsburg State
NCAA Division III December 17, 2011 Wisconsin-Whitewater
NAIA December 17, 2011 Saint Xavier (Ill.)

Version 2.1

Version 2.1 of the ratings metric award a team for 1) winning a game, 2) up to 14 points bonus for margin of victory and 3) up to 14 points bonus for holding the opponent below 14 points. This method is a sort of intermediate between the Flat and the Straight methods.

Version 2.1
NCAA and NAIA FBS (Div. I-A) FCS (Div. I-AA) NCAA Division I NCAA Division II NCAA Division III NAIA
Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012 Jan 9, 2012
Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011
Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011 Nov 26, 2011
Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011 Nov 19, 2011
Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011
Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011
Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011 Oct 29, 2011
Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011 Oct 22, 2011
Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011
Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011
Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011

Flat

The Flat ratings award a team only for winning a game. (Perhaps this should be the Herman Edwards method. "You play to win the game!") In these ratings there are no bonuses for margin of victory or for defensive performance. The Flat ratings are comparable to the computer systems used by the Bowl Championship Series (BCS).

Flat
(BCS Style)
NCAA and NAIA FBS (Div. I-A) FCS (Div. I-AA) NCAA Division I NCAA Division II NCAA Division III NAIA
Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011
Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011
Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011
Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011
Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011
Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011

Straight

The Straight ratings award a team only for margin of victory. These numbers are (theoretically) the best for predicting how a pair of teams that have yet to play will fare. Some systems call these type of rating the "predictor" ratings. Trust these number at your own risk. Keep in mind that a college football team is a complex system comprising many parts. Describing such a system with a single numerical index is a huge simplification. "Real" predictions should take things such as injuries, matchups and emotional elements into account. Computer ratings sytems are blind to these important aspects of competition! The Straight ratings are comparable to Jeff Sagarin's Pure Points (Predictor) ratings.

Straight
(Predictor Style)
NCAA and NAIA FBS (Div. I-A) FCS (Div. I-AA) NCAA Division I NCAA Division II NCAA Division III NAIA
Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011
Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011 Nov 12, 2011
Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011
Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011
Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011 Oct 8, 2011
Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2011

Win plus offense

In this rating method, a team is given 10 points for winning a game, and then a bonus based on how many points they scored. The bonus the losing team would have gotten is then subtracted. In this way, winning teams with stronger offenses should rise to the top of these ratings.

Win plus offense
NCAA and NAIA FBS (Div. I-A) FCS (Div. I-AA) NCAA Division I NCAA Division II NCAA Division III NAIA
Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011
Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011
Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011

Defense

In this rating method, a team is given 10 points for winning a game, and then a bonus based on how few points they allowed. The bonus the losing team would have gotten is then subtracted. In this way, winning teams with stronger defenses should rise to the top of these ratings.

Win plus defense
NCAA and NAIA FBS (Div. I-A) FCS (Div. I-AA) NCAA Division I NCAA Division II NCAA Division III NAIA
Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011 Dec 3, 2011
Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011 Nov 5, 2011
Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011 Oct 15, 2011

Football data for these ratings was taken from Peter Wolfe's page.
Also, check out Kenneth Massey's Comparison of College Football Ratings.

NCAA Baseball

The following ratings for college baseball are based on margin of victory, with a cap at 8 runs, and diminishing returns for a large margin of victory, a "pitching bonus" for holding a team under 4 runs, and finally a two run bonus for winning.

College Baseball
TFS 4.5 Flat
May 13, 2012 May 13, 2012
May 6, 2012 May 6, 2012
Apr 29, 2012 Apr 29, 2012
Apr 22, 2012 Apr 22, 2012
Apr 15, 2012 Apr 15, 2012
Apr 8, 2012 Apr 8, 2012
Apr 3, 2012 Apr 3, 2012
Mar 25, 2012 Mar 25, 2012
Mar 18, 2012 Mar 18, 2012
Mar 11, 2012 Mar 11, 2012
Mar 8, 2012 Mar 8, 2012
Mar 4, 2012 Mar 4, 2012

Baseball scores data for these ratings are taken from Kenneth Massey's database at http://www.masseyratings.com/.

Kenneth Massey also hosts a comparison of College Baseball computer ratings systems.

College Basketball

College Basketball
MOV Flat
Margin of Victory Flat

Scores used in this set of ratings was taken from Peter Wolfe's compilation of scores.